Jan CPI growth predicted close to December's

　　China's National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release January economic data Thursday. Most financial institutions predicted that the year-on-year CPI growth might stand at around 1.8 percent, close to the figure of December, 2009.

　　Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities in Beijing, estimated that China's CPI may increase 1.8 percent year on year and 0.8 percent compared with the previous month. Affected by the Spring Festival, CPI growth may hit 3 percent in February and decline to 2.8 percent in March.

　　"China's PPI will continue to increase, exceeding 5 percent in February and 6 percent in March," noted Zhu.

　　The prediction of Feng Yuming, chief economic at Orient Securities, was higher. He said that year-on-year growth of CPI would hit 2 percent. A report released by China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) claimed that the growth of agricultural products would slow down, and January CPI growth would be around 1.6 to 2.0 percent.

　　Zhu disagreed with the market's concern about inflation expectation. Due to abundant food supply, commodity prices wound not grow as rapidly as in 2008. There will only be "mild inflation", she said.

　　Abundant food supply and overcapacity in the industrial sector would leave inflation under control in 2010, said Sun Mingchun, chief China economist of Nomura Securities.

　　Song Guoqign, a professor with Peking University, noted that China's inflation rate would exceed 3 percent, or even 4 percent, by the end of 2010. "If new loans are as high as 7 to 8 trillion yuan, the inflation rate is quite likely to exceed 4 percent."

　　By People's Daily Online